The Ascendancy of the Far Right: Germany’s Shifting Political Landscape and the Crisis of European Liberalism

By Zaki Laïdi
Published: September 22, 2026

PARIS—Another decisive victory for the far right in a German state election has confirmed European liberals’ worst fears. With a critical calendar of European elections fast approaching in 2027, debates concerning the proper limits of popular sovereignty, the erosion of institutional norms, and the fundamental tenets of liberal democracy have suddenly vaulted from academic seminars to the absolute center of continental politics.

Coming just a couple of weeks after the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) secured the largest share of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt’s regional parliament, the latest electoral results from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern confirm a grim reality: Germany has officially entered the same cycle of hyper-political polarization that has already upended political establishments across much of Europe.

As traditional centrist coalitions strain under the weight of populist insurgencies, the foundations of the post-war European consensus face their most severe stress test to date.

1. Main Facts

The recent string of electoral breakthroughs by the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in eastern German states marks a historic turning point in the Federal Republic’s post-reunification political history.

• The Electoral Breakthroughs: Following a historic plurality win in Saxony-Anhalt, the AfD replicated and reinforced its dominance in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. These victories are not isolated anomalies; they represent a sustained systemic shift away from the traditional center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD).
• The Normalization of the Far Right: Once treated as a fringe, protest-driven phenomenon, the AfD has successfully consolidated a stable, highly motivated base of voters who feel economically disenfranchised, culturally alienated, and profoundly distrustful of federal authorities in Berlin.
• The Ideological Conflict: At the heart of these electoral outcomes lies a fundamental tension between representative democracy and unchecked popular sovereignty. The far right utilizes democratic mechanisms to champion illiberal policies, directly challenging the checks and balances designed to protect minority rights and institutional continuity.
• The Continental Ripple Effect: Because Germany has historically served as the primary anchor of political stability and economic predictability within the European Union, its internal polarization threatens to paralyze EU-level decision-making at a time when collective unity is desperately required.

2. Chronology of Events Leading to the Crisis

To understand how Germany arrived at this precarious juncture, it is necessary to examine the cascading sequence of events that eroded the traditional political firewall (Brandmauer) separating mainstream parties from the far right.

• 2013–2015: The Genesis of the AfD: Originally founded as an anti-euro party during the sovereign debt crisis, the AfD rapidly transformed its platform during the 2015 European migrant crisis, weaponizing public anxiety surrounding immigration, national identity, and cultural change.
• 2017–2021: Parliamentary Breakthrough and Radicalization: The AfD successfully entered the Bundestag for the first time in 2017, establishing a permanent national platform. Over the subsequent four years, internal factionalism pushed the party increasingly toward its more radical, ethno-nationalist wing—particularly in eastern federal states.
• 2022–2024: The Polycrisis Era: The fallout from the war in Ukraine, persistent inflation, energy insecurity, and post-pandemic economic sluggishness created fertile ground for populist agitation. The AfD capitalized on widespread public discontent with the federal "traffic light" coalition (SPD, Greens, and FDP).
• Early September 2026: The Saxony-Anhalt Earthquake: The AfD secures the largest share of the vote in Saxony-Anhalt, shattering decades of moderate dominance and sending shockwaves through the political establishment in Berlin.
• Late September 2026: Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and the New Normal: Barely two weeks later, results from Mecklenburg-Vorpommern confirm that the Saxony-Anhalt outcome was not a fluke, plunging German political analysts into deep introspection regarding the durability of the nation’s democratic institutions.

3. Supporting Data and Sociological Context

A granular analysis of the voting patterns reveals deep structural fissures within German society, particularly along geographic, economic, and generational lines.

The East-West Divide

The resurgence of the radical right remains heavily concentrated in the former East German territories (the Neue Bundesländer). Decades after reunification, persistent economic disparities—including lower average wages, fewer corporate headquarters, and a widespread perception of being treated as "second-class citizens" by western elites—have fostered a deep-seated anti-establishment sentiment.

According to recent polling data accompanying the state elections:

• Over 38% of voters aged 25 to 54 in the affected eastern states cite "loss of national identity" and "uncontrolled immigration" as their primary political concerns.
• Voter turnout in rural districts surged by nearly 12 percentage points compared to previous election cycles, driven almost entirely by first-time voters and disaffected former non-voters mobilizing behind the AfD.
• Trust in traditional public-service media and federal institutions has dropped below 40% in the regions where the AfD secured its largest pluralities, contrasting sharply with western states where institutional trust hovers around 65%.

Economic Anxiety vs. Cultural Grievance

While mainstream economists often attribute the rise of populism to objective metrics like deindustrialization and inflation, qualitative studies from the region suggest that cultural anxiety plays an equally potent role. Voters are reacting not merely to price hikes at the grocery store, but to a perceived erosion of traditional communal structures and a fear of demographic transformation.

4. Official Responses and Political Reactions

The electoral tsunami in the east has provoked immediate, anxious responses from political leaders across Germany and the wider European Union.

Berlin Reacts: The Struggle for a Strategy

Federal leaders from both the governing coalition and the official opposition have scrambled to formulate a coherent response.

• The Chancellor’s Office: Federal spokespersons issued statements emphasizing the resilience of Germany’s constitutional framework (Grundgesetz), while acknowledging that the government must do more to address the legitimate economic concerns of rural and working-class communities. However, critics within the administration argue that defensive rhetoric is no longer sufficient.
• The CDU Dilemma: Friedrich Merz and the national leadership of the Christian Democratic Union face an agonizing strategic dilemma. While the official party line maintains a strict "firewall" (Brandmauer) refusing any form of parliamentary cooperation or coalition-building with the AfD, local CDU politicians in eastern municipalities face intense practical pressure to break the cordon sanitaire to pass local budgets and administer public services.

European Capitals Sound the Alarm

In Brussels, Paris, and Warsaw, the news from Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern has been greeted with profound apprehension.

• The French Perspective: French political analysts view the German shift as proof that no European nation is immune to the populist wave. With the French presidential and legislative elections looming in 2027, the normalization of the far right in Germany removes a historical psychological barrier against extremist electoral success.
• EU Institutions: Senior European Commission officials have expressed quiet concern that a polarized, inward-looking Germany will become a less reliable engine for European integration, stalling vital initiatives on fiscal reform, defense cooperation, and enlargement.

5. Implications for 2027 and the Future of Liberal Democracy

As Europe looks ahead to the critical electoral calendar of 2027, the events in Germany serve as both a warning and a catalyst for a much broader ideological reckoning.

Popular Sovereignty Versus Liberal Constitutionalism

At the core of the current crisis is a profound philosophical dispute over the nature of democracy itself. Populist movements define democracy purely through the lens of majoritarian popular sovereignty: if the people vote for a party, that party’s program must be enacted without institutional friction.

Liberals, by contrast, argue that constitutional democracy is defined just as much by its constraints—independent judiciaries, protection of minority rights, a free press, and adherence to international treaties. When populist parties weaponize democratic tools to dismantle these liberal guardrails, the system faces an existential paradox.

The Erosion of the Center

The traditional center-left and center-right parties are caught in a damaging political vise. If they adopt the rhetorical framing of the far right to win back voters, they risk legitimizing extremist positions and alienating their progressive bases. If they refuse to adapt, they risk being slowly squeezed out of relevance as polarized electorates abandon the political middle.

Preparing for 2027

With major European democracies heading to the polls next year, the German test case offers three sobering lessons:

1. Complacency is fatal: Economic stability alone is not a sufficient inoculation against cultural and political radicalization.
2. The firewall requires active maintenance: Institutional barriers against extremism cannot survive on norms alone; they require proactive, compelling alternative political narratives that address the root causes of public alienation.
3. The stakes are continental: What happens in German state elections no longer stays in Germany. The normalization of illiberal politics in Europe’s economic powerhouse threatens to redefine the democratic identity of the entire European project.

As Zaki Laïdi notes, the debates now unfolding in Paris, Berlin, and Brussels are no longer theoretical exercises. They are urgent, high-stakes struggles for the survival of the liberal democratic model in the 21st century.